The winter of 2024/2025 is here, and ice season is about to get started for real!
The North American Ice Service has issued its seasonal ice outlook for the Great Lakes.
This forecast provides crucial insights for ice anglers across the northern United States and Ontario, Canada.
Below, we outline the expected ice conditions for each of the five Great Lakes, including sub-regions of interest to ice fishing fanatics.
Lake Superior: Gradual Ice Formation
General Overview
Lake Superior will experience slightly below-normal ice conditions this winter.
December will see open water, with ice beginning to form later in the month along sheltered bays and nearshore areas.
By February, medium to thick consolidated ice will dominate some areas.
Regional Highlights
- Thunder Bay: Ice begins forming in late December, with thin to medium ice consolidating along the shore by February.
- Nipigon and Black Bays: These areas will see earlier ice formation, with thick ice consolidating by mid-January and persisting through February.
- Chequamegon Bay: By January, this bay will have consolidated medium ice, transitioning to thick ice by mid-February.
Anglers should target these bays for earlier ice fishing opportunities, but caution is advised during the initial formation period.
Lake Michigan: Limited Ice Coverage
General Overview
Lake Michigan is forecast to have slightly below-normal ice conditions, with ice primarily forming in Green Bay and nearshore areas.
Regional Highlights
- Green Bay: Ice will begin forming in mid/end-December, with thick consolidated ice present in sheltered areas by February.
- Northeastern Shoreline: Ice near the Straits of Mackinac will remain limited until January, with medium ice forming by February.
- Southern Shoreline: Minimal ice development, with patchy new and thin ice forming along the shorelines late in the season.
Ice anglers in Green Bay will have the best opportunities, especially in the Bays de Noc and near Chambers Island.
Lake Huron: Mixed Conditions Across the Basin
General Overview
Lake Huron, including Georgian Bay, will see slightly below-normal ice conditions, with more extensive coverage in the North Channel and sheltered bays.
Regional Highlights
- North Channel: Ice will consolidate in sheltered areas by January, with medium and thick ice dominating by February.
- Georgian Bay: Northern and eastern shores will see significant ice formation starting in January, with consolidated thick ice near Midland by mid-February.
- Saginaw Bay: Ice formation begins in December, with thick, consolidated ice present by February in southern sections.
These regions offer reliable conditions for ice fishing, especially in sheltered bays and near the Bruce Peninsula.
Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair: Quick Freeze in Western Basins
General Overview
Lake Erie, known for its relatively shallow depth, will experience slightly below-normal ice conditions.
The western basin and Sandusky Bay will be the first areas to develop fishable ice.
Regional Highlights
- Lake St. Clair and the Western Basin: Ice begins forming by late December, with medium consolidated ice prevalent by mid-February.
- Sandusky Bay: Thick ice will dominate by February, providing excellent ice fishing conditions.
- Long Point: Eastern shoreline areas will see medium ice coverage by February, with thinner ice forming earlier.
Anglers should monitor conditions closely, as ice thickness can vary across the lake.
Lake Ontario: Near Normal Ice Growth in the Bay Areas
General Overview
Lake Ontario is forecast to have near-normal ice conditions, with limited coverage due to its depth and relatively mild temperatures.
Regional Highlights
- Northeastern Shoreline: Sheltered bays near Kingston will see thin and medium ice consolidating by February.
- Bay of Quinte: Ice will form earlier here, with medium to thick consolidated ice present by mid-February, making it a hotspot for anglers.
- Elsewhere: Central and southern areas will remain largely ice-free, with only limited ice near shorelines.
Bay of Quinte is the prime location for ice fishing on Lake Ontario this winter.
Comparing This Winter to Last Year’s Abnormally Warm Winter
Last winter, the Great Lakes experienced unseasonably warm temperatures, which significantly limited ice coverage.
Lake Superior, for instance, saw ice coverage peak at only 12%, compared to a long-term average of 52%.
Similarly, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron recorded some of their lowest ice extents on record, with many anglers unable to find safe ice in traditionally reliable locations like Green Bay and Saginaw Bay.
The average ice cover of all five lakes was a mere 4.3%, which was the lowest recorded since recordings began back in the 1970s.
The previous winter (2022/2023) had already been the fourth-lowest on record.
For comparison, the long-term average ice coverage for the Great Lakes is 53%.
In contrast, this year’s forecast predicts slightly below-normal to near-normal ice conditions across most of the Great Lakes.
While not a return to historic norms, the outlook is far more favorable for ice anglers.
Areas like Nipigon Bay, Georgian Bay, and Sandusky Bay are expected to offer much more consistent and safer ice conditions than last year.
This winter presents a welcome change for the angling community, eager to recover from last year’s extremely disappointing season.
Safety Tips for Ice Anglers
Tip #1: Always check ice thickness
The first and most important thing is always to check the thickness of the ice!
Generally speaking, you should stay off ice that’s less than 4 inches thick. PERIOD!
Personally, I prefer six inches, just in case, but four will generally do, though. However, you must check the ice on your way out constantly.
Four inches of ice can quickly turn into two or one inch. And boom, you’re going through!
Please keep that in mind, especially when it comes to first ice. I know the urge to head out there for the first time is strong, but that first ice fishing trip surely isn’t worth your life, is it?
The Minnesota DNR has good guidelines for new ice thickness. But remember: no matter how solid or thick it might be, no ice is 100% safe!
Ice thickness guidelines for new, clear ice
| Under 4″ | Stay off! |
| 4″ | Ice fishing or other activities on foot |
| 5″ – 7″ | Snowmobile or small ATV |
| 7” – 8” | Side-by-side ATV |
| 9” – 10” | Small car or SUV |
| 11” – 12” | Medium SUV or small truck |
| 13”- 15” | Medium truck |
| 16” – 17” | Heavy-duty truck |
| 20”+ | Heavy-duty truck with wheelhouse shelter |
Tip #2: Trust your spud bar
A spud bar or ice chisel is probably your most important tool on the ice! It’ll help you check the thickness and compactness of the ice.
Personally, I wouldn’t head out without one. It’s really vital!
A spud bar allows you to test the ice quickly and frequently, saving you time and energy, as you won’t have to drill dozens of holes with your auger.
For thinner ice, between 4 and 6 inches, you can even use it to make your holes. This way, you skip carrying around that heavy ice auger and build some extra muscle.
One or two hits with your heavy spud bar, in the same exact spot, the ice is usually 2 inches thick.
Four or more hits in the same spot, it’s usually about 4 inches of ice, and you should be able to fish it.
Tip #3: Always wear ice picks
Never go on the ice without wearing that good old trusted pair of ice picks around your neck!
If, God forbid, you should fall through, these things can end up saving your life!
Without them, you might never be able to pull yourself out of the water and onto the ice.
So please don’t take them off while ice fishing. That’s not the point of bringing them!
There’s also an important psychological aspect to consider here, as ice picks can give you peace of mind by simply wearing them.
Tip #4: Don’t go ice fishing alone
This is a great safety tip for early ice that you might be uncertain about.
The buddy system can ensure that your friend or friends can help you in case of an emergency or that you can help your friend or friends!
Making your way back onto the ice alone can sometimes be an impossibility. Having someone around who could help you or quickly get help can make all the difference!
Besides, it’s always more fun to go fishing together with your buddies.
Featured images courtesy of NOAA – Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
