After Nottingham Forest’s worst defeat in just over a year, a frustrated and angry Nuno Espirito Santo lamented the fact his side had conceded seven goals in the space of three halves of football.
It must be time for a change, right? Time to dust off Plan B? The last few days on the training ground must have seen Nuno contemplating what could be done differently to keep that most unexpected of Champions League pushes on track.
That would have been the reactionary response, at least. What happened was far more considered.
Nuno addressed his squad at the training ground on Monday and told his players, “This is not us”. The players were fiercely frustrated, they were disappointed by what happened in Bournemouth. But the first session was shaped around addressing the defensive errors that had left them looking uncharacteristically fragile. In the subsequent days, the priority has been to restore confidence.
“Today they were good, tomorrow hopefully they will be even better still and on Saturday, perfect!” said Nuno in a lighthearted moment of his pre-match press conference.
The 5-0 defeat by Bournemouth and a nervy 3-2 win over Southampton provided much to contemplate. Given Forest also conceded a fair number of chances to Liverpool in the 1-1 draw that came prior to that, it is fair to question whether Forest might have lost their way defensively.
But equally, what is not in question is that, this season, the Portuguese head coach has given his team a way of playing — an identity — that has been hugely effective. Forest’s mentality — being hugely difficult to break down while simultaneously ruthless on the counter-attack — is what has led them to third place in the table.
But as they prepare to face Brighton, do they need to reevaluate this mentality to sustain that push for Europe?
What has made Forest so effective?
Forest are the most direct attacking side in the Premier League.
The graph below shows direct speed, measuring how quickly a team moves the ball towards the goal line in metres per second, with the fewest passes per sequence.
When Nuno arrived at Forest, he did not come armed with any preconceived notions about how he wanted the team to play. Instead, he looked at the squad he inherited, at the strengths and weaknesses they possessed and tried to formulate the best way forward.
That process continued into this season, with individual players thriving within the framework Nuno has given them.
Since the Portuguese arrived in December 2023, no player in the Premier League has more goals and assists from fast breaks than Anthony Elanga (seven, level with Nicolas Jackson and Mohamed Salah). Morgan Gibbs-White has five.
Forest have thrived despite having the joint second-lowest possession percentage (39.5 per cent, the same as Ipswich Town) this season, with only Everton (39.3 per cent) having had less of the ball. Forest also have the lowest pressing intensity in the division — but the third-strongest defence in terms of xG conceded (behind Arsenal and Liverpool).
Nuno has turned Forest into a side that can often invite pressure on themselves, but who are hugely adept at dealing with it. They do not allow opposition chances to come easily. And their approach is more complex and nuanced than might sound, as analysed in more detail here.
What are the potential flaws?
Forest have been outstanding at scoring the first goal in games, doing so on 19 occasions, which is as many as Arsenal and one more than leaders Liverpool. They have won 13 of those matches while drawing five and losing one.
Forest’s approach is perfectly set up for them to close games out, once they have the advantage. The sight of Morato coming off the bench to help shore things up in the final 20 minutes has become a source of reassurance to Forest fans.
Conversely, Forest have fallen behind in only seven games this season, which is the best record in the Premier League, along with Arsenal. But they have taken only four points from those games, winning only once. The only time Forest won after conceding the first goal was against Aston Villa, when late goals from Nikola Milenkovic and Elanga helped them come back from 1-0 down in December.
Otherwise, if they concede first, it tends to be bad news. That was certainly the case at Bournemouth, where Forest did briefly hint at a comeback in the first half but fell apart after the interval.
The form of Chris Wood has been a massive positive so far. The New Zealand striker has been in the form of his life. The 33-year-old’s 14 goals account for just under half of the 33 times Forest have hit the back of the net this season. His conversion rate is remarkable. He has registered an average of 0.31 goals per shot, which is ahead of the likes of Alexander Isak (0.26) and Erling Haaland (0.19).
Wood has an xG of 8.1 — and therefore an over-performance of +5.9. But what if he cannot sustain that impressive level of performance?
Is it still working?
Well, yes. The Bournemouth defeat was an anomaly in a sense. The xG of the two sides last weekend was 1.67 vs 0.98, which does not reflect the final scoreline.
Bournemouth were ruthless but Forest have been on the other side of similar stats themselves this season, scoring more goals than their xG would suggest.
Forest’s overall xG is 28.5, in comparison to the 33 goals they have scored. There have been numerous games in which they have shown the same level of merciless finishing as their opponents did last weekend.
While the second half against Southampton and 90 minutes against Bournemouth might suggest Forest’s approach is being found out, that is not true in a wider sense.
The graphic below demonstrates how Forest have gradually become more defensively solid since promotion (red line trending downwards), although their attacking output has also decreased slightly since the start of the season.
But there is no evidence to suggest the plan has stopped working.
What does Nuno think?
“We have to address what happened, but we do not have to change. We have to look for a new solution, to give us a better performance. But it is not about getting crazy; we do not work like that. We have a foundation of things that we do well,” Nuno said.
“It is about reinforcing that and realising that, to do that, the main aspects are being intense and being aggressive.
“I think they (the players) believe (in the approach). They are aware that all we have achieved is based on a foundation and a way of doing things. We might try different solutions, perhaps even a different shape. But the identity and the idea of the team must be even stronger. All of us had an off day, myself included. But it is too easy just to say ‘We had a bad day’. I will not say that, because it is not enough. It requires a better understanding of what happened.
“The confidence has been shaken, but now we have to go again. It is about how we react. The most difficult thing in football is to sustain (your levels). If you drop, it is about how long you stay (down) here. There has to be a response.”
(Top photo: Darren Staples/AFP)
